I didn’t agonize over whether court reporting was right for me — it looked like the kind of thing I’m good at. But I was curious whether research existed on what makes someone a good fit. It does.

I found five machine stenography studies — Gilsdorf (1968), Jacobsen & Borchardt (1980), Bottas (1981), Morse (1989), and Gaede (2000) — along with a broader body of pen shorthand research, including Barr’s 1970 synthesis of 220 studies and a review by Crank, Anderson, and Peterson (1982). Despite differences in method and era, all of this research converges on the same core findings.

What predicts success

Reading and language ability — the most consistent predictor across all the research. Every study that measured it found it. English grades, ACT Reading and English scores, self-reported reading ability, grammar skills — different measures, same direction. Morse’s 1989 study of 258 students at SIU found ACT English was the single best discriminating variable between completers and noncompleters. Barr’s 220-study synthesis confirmed the pattern across the broader shorthand literature.

Scholastic average — GPA or high school rank correlated with success in every study that tested it, with correlations ranging from .42 to .66 in the shorthand literature. Morse found high school rank was the second-best predictor after ACT English, and together they did most of the heavy lifting in distinguishing completers from noncompleters.

Typing speed — appeared as a predictor in three of the five machine steno studies.

Musical instrument — found in both studies that measured it. Most played piano.

IQ — a floor effect. In Gilsdorf’s sample, nobody below 100 (the average & median IQ) succeeded, but the four highest IQs were all in the unsuccessful group. Barr’s synthesis found the same split across the broader literature.

Goal orientation — the only personality variable that ever reached statistical significance in any of these studies. It measures things like “to have well-defined goals” and “to know exactly what I am trying to accomplish.”

Age — examined only by Gilsdorf, who found no student over 30 reached 200 WPM in his sample of six older students. Too small to generalize from, and people do certify after 30 and 40. But both life circumstances and the natural effects of aging on cognition likely make the path harder.

What doesn’t predict success: Foreign language study showed mixed results across the research — sometimes moderately correlated, but redundant with stronger predictors like English and GPA. Crank et al. considered student attitude and motivation the most important variable — but none of the prognostic tests they reviewed could capture it.

How predictive is this?

Jacobsen & Borchardt combined their four best predictors (ACT English score, typing speed, goal orientation score, and grammar test score) into a composite score. Without it, about 1 in 3 students passed the CSR. With it, they could identify a group where about 1 in 2 passed and a group where about 1 in 4 did. Useful, but far from a crystal ball. (It’s worth noting that overall graduation rates in the 1970s appear to have been higher than today, likely due to a younger, less encumbered student population.)

A recurring theme across the research: it’s easier to predict failure than success. Morse found that her best predictors correctly identified 84% of students who dropped out in the first year, but only correctly predicted 40% of completers. Crank et al. (1982) reached the same conclusion in their review of pen shorthand prognosis. The factors that lead to success include too many intangibles — Gilsdorf’s word was “immeasurable” — for any test battery to capture fully.

Modern expertise researchers would likely test additional measures like working memory, processing speed, and reaction time — none of which have been studied in court reporters yet. I’d also be interested in any correlations between video gaming and autism with court reporting success.

How to think about this for yourself

These studies used grades and test scores as proxies — only you know whether your grades reflected your ability or your effort. Similarly, fast typists and musicians did better, but those are markers of motor coordination and learning style, not prerequisites.

These factors shift the odds. They can’t tell you what you’ll do with those odds. Gilsdorf’s best student at Kenosha Technical Institute had a 2.18 GPA — the lowest in the successful group. Guidance counselors called her an underachiever. She passed all three parts of the Certificate of Proficiency thirteen months after enrolling, defying every norm in Gilsdorf’s study. The data gives us probabilities, not destinies.

For what it’s worth, here’s how I stack up: 800 SAT Reading/Writing, English and Writing teachers that enjoyed my essays, good at catching typos, ABRSM Grade 8+ piano, 105 WPM typing, C2-level German, goal-oriented. I was 34 when I started, but I’ve found enough people who certified after starting in their 30s to feel okay about that.